Warsaw Flat Prices Are Climbing Again — But This Is Not 2021

Warsaw residential prices rose an average of 11 percent year-on-year in the second quarter of 2026, according to data compiled by the Polish Real Estate Federation, pushing the median asking price for a new-build flat in the city to roughly 18,400 złoty per square metre. That figure grabs attention. In the first quarter of 2021 — the peak of the post-lockdown frenzy — the same metric sat at around 11,200 złoty. The gap tells you everything about how much the market has changed, and how little it has cooled.

The comparison matters right now because a cluster of decisions are converging at once. The National Bank of Poland held its benchmark rate at 5.25 percent at its June meeting, mortgage lending has loosened slightly under the revised Bezpieczny Kredyt programme, and a new wave of infrastructure spending tied to the CPK airport corridor project is reshaping buyer calculus in the capital's outer districts. Developers and estate agents who lived through the 2021 cycle are openly debating whether Warsaw is entering a second boom — or something more structurally durable.

What 2021 Actually Looked Like

The 2021 surge was blunt and fast. Near-zero interest rates, pandemic savings, and a flight from rental uncertainty drove Varsovians to buy anything they could afford. In Mokotów, two-bedroom flats that had listed at 750,000 złoty in early 2020 were closing above 950,000 złoty by the end of 2021. Praga-Południe — long considered the scruffier, more affordable bank of the Vistula — recorded a 22 percent price jump in a single calendar year. Supply could not keep up. Completion queues at the land registry in Śródmieście stretched for months.

The correction that followed was real but limited. Between mid-2022 and late 2023, transaction volumes dropped sharply as mortgage rates climbed above 8 percent. Prices, however, barely budged in nominal terms. Sellers held firm, new supply slowed, and Warsaw's chronic undersupply relative to demand — the city adds roughly 15,000 to 18,000 people annually from domestic migration alone — acted as a floor.

The 2026 Rebound Has Different Architecture

This year's gains are narrower but more durable, according to analysts at JLL Poland's Warsaw office. The volume of speculative purchases — individual investors buying off-plan units to flip within 18 months — is markedly lower than in 2021. Instead, demand is concentrated among end-users: young professionals priced out of the rental market and families moving inward from suburban commuter towns like Piaseczno and Legionowo.

The geography of price growth has also shifted. In 2021, Śródmieście and Wilanów led. Today the strongest momentum is in Wola, where the completion of the Towarowa 22 mixed-use development has accelerated gentrification along the western edge of the city centre, and in Białołęka, where infrastructure upgrades tied to the planned northern metro extension are pulling first-time buyers in significant numbers. A 50-square-metre flat in central Wola now commonly lists between 850,000 and 920,000 złoty — a price point that would have seemed implausible on that side of the city four years ago.

Foreign capital is a smaller factor than many assume. Ukrainian buyers, who were active in 2022 and 2023 as a result of wartime displacement, have become more cautious as ceasefire negotiations continue. German and Dutch institutional funds remain present — Heimstaden operates a substantial portfolio in the city — but they are not the marginal price-setter they were briefly perceived to be.

For buyers entering the market now, the practical calculus is uncomfortable. Waiting for a significant correction appears unlikely unless the NBP delivers aggressive rate cuts, which the bank has not signalled. Financing a 700,000 złoty purchase with a 20 percent deposit at current rates still implies a monthly repayment above 3,800 złoty — a serious commitment on a median Warsaw household income. The more likely scenario is that prices grind higher at a slower pace through the back half of 2026, with the most competitive inventory in Wola and Praga-Północ continuing to attract multiple offers within days of listing. Buyers who need to move should focus on negotiating completion timelines and finishing-cost allowances rather than waiting for headline prices to fall.