Warsaw Auction Clearance Rates Hit 68% in June — and Sellers Are Starting to Notice

Warsaw's residential auction market ended June with a clearance rate of 68 percent — the highest monthly figure recorded by the Polish Real Estate Federation since Q3 2023. That single number is doing a lot of work right now. It tells buyers they are competing harder for fewer properties, and it tells sellers they have room to push asking prices with less risk of sitting unsold through the summer.

The timing matters because Warsaw's market had spent most of 2025 in an uneasy equilibrium. The National Bank of Poland held its reference rate at 5.25 percent through the back half of last year, cooling mortgage demand and giving buyers unusual negotiating leverage. That leverage is evaporating. The NBP trimmed rates twice in early 2026 — by a combined 75 basis points — and new mortgage applications at PKO Bank Polski climbed 22 percent in May compared with the same month a year earlier. Auction rooms felt the change immediately.

Where the Competition Is Sharpest

The pressure is most visible in Śródmieście and Mokotów, the two districts that have historically led Warsaw pricing cycles. A 74-square-metre apartment on ul. Marszałkowska — listed at 1.28 million złoty in late May — sold at auction on 17 June for 1.41 million złoty after nine rounds of bidding involving six registered parties. That is a 10.2 percent premium over the asking price, a margin that would have been unthinkable at a Warsaw auction table eighteen months ago.

Mokotów is seeing similar dynamics, particularly in the Stary Mokotów pocket around ul. Puławska and Plac Unii Lubelskiej. Several mid-tier developments marketed by Murapol and Dom Development in that corridor have adopted the auction format this year specifically to capitalise on bidding competition, a departure from the fixed-price list approach both companies relied on as recently as 2024. Industry watchers at the Warsaw Real Estate Forum, which met at the Palace of Culture and Science in April, flagged the shift as structurally significant — developers do not switch sales formats unless they are confident demand outstrips inventory.

What the Numbers Actually Signal

A clearance rate above 65 percent has historically preceded a broader price lift in Warsaw of between 6 and 9 percent over the following two quarters, based on data tracked by Cenatorium, the Warsaw-based property analytics firm. The city averaged 14,800 złoty per square metre across all districts in May 2026, up from 13,400 złoty in January 2025. Praga-Południe, long the budget alternative to the left-bank districts, crossed 12,000 złoty per square metre for the first time in April, driven partly by spillover demand from buyers priced out of Wola and Żoliborz.

The practical read for buyers: the window for submitting offers below asking on well-located Warsaw stock is effectively closed for now. Properties that went unsold at first listing during the rate-hold period of 2025 are being relisted at higher prices and clearing faster. Agents at ERA Nieruchomości report that average days-on-market for apartments in Ochota dropped from 47 days in December 2025 to 19 days in June 2026.

For sellers, the clearance data supports patience but not complacency. A rate of 68 percent means roughly one in three properties still does not sell at auction — often because vendors overprice relative to comparable sales rather than because demand is weak. The gap between aspirational listing prices and actual comparable transactions on ul. Nowogrodzka and the streets feeding into Plac Konstytucji has widened in recent weeks, suggesting some sellers are getting ahead of themselves on the strength of headline figures alone.

The NBP's next rate decision falls on 9 July. A further cut of even 25 basis points would almost certainly push clearance rates above 70 percent by August, cementing the seller's market conditions that Warsaw last experienced in the post-pandemic surge of 2022. Buyers with pre-approved financing would be well-served to act before that meeting rather than after it.