Warsaw Housing Market Steadies, but Falls Short of 2021 Boom

Apartment prices in Warsaw have cooled after their explosive 2021 peak, with average transaction values in Śródmieście and Mokotów neighborhoods now inching up by less than 4% annually—well down from the double-digit spikes seen at the tail end of the pandemic property frenzy.

The more muted market comes at a tense moment for Poland. With Prime Minister Mateusz Zawisza warning of critical months ahead due to the Russian threat and war in Ukraine roiling the region, real estate has, paradoxically, become both a safe haven and a source of caution for local buyers and investors. The 2021 buying mania, fueled by record-low interest rates and pent-up post-lockdown demand, seems a distant memory to agents on ul. Marszałkowska and prospective buyers near Plac Grzybowski.

Two Markets, Two Mindsets

During 2021, buyers scrambled for even modest two-room flats in key districts like Powiśle and Wilanów, with median prices city-wide leaping from 11,000 to over 14,000 PLN per square metre, according to the Warsaw Association of Real Estate Agencies (WSPON). This year, WSPON data show median prices on the secondary market at 14,700 PLN per square metre for June—roughly a 3.8% year-on-year rise. By comparison, from mid-2020 through mid-2022, prices had surged over 23% as families raced to upgrade and investors parked cash against inflation.

Yet volume tells its own story. According to figures released last week by Notus Finanse, completed transactions in Q2 2026 were down 16% from the same period three years prior. Developers such as Dom Development SA report that new project launches are being carefully phased, especially around hotspots like ul. Towarowa, where high-end schemes now face more selective demand. "Buyers are more cautious, picking based on energy efficiency and neighborhood security," an analyst at JLL Polska told The Daily Warsaw—"no longer buying blind out of fear of missing out."

Outlook: Stability with Caveats

How Warsaw will weather the next six months is an open question. Local banks, including mBank and PKO BP, have tightened mortgage criteria slightly, reflecting both inflation worries and the broader atmosphere of geopolitical uncertainty. The city’s rental market, kept tight by an influx of Ukrainian migrants, is showing some price pressure—average monthly rents for a 50-sqm flat in Żoliborz currently hover around 3,500 PLN, edging up from 3,200 PLN at the start of the year.

With fewer “flippers” active and speculative foreign investors largely sitting out this cycle, experts say buyers should focus on location, building insulation, and legal status—rather than betting on spectacular returns. For those considering stepping onto the property ladder or trading up, the current stability offers a less frantic, more negotiable setting. Still, few in the industry expect a return to 2021-style price fireworks soon, unless there’s a dramatic policy shift from the National Bank of Poland or, more ominously, regional conflict.